Many people often ask me why anyone would ever risk their hard-earned money on sports wagering. Whenever I’m asked such a question I simply ask the inquirer to imagine that they have a special coin that lands on heads 3 out of every 5 times flipped no matter what. Now imagine you have a friend who is willing to give you a dollar every time the coin lands on heads if you give him a dollar every time the coin lands on tails. Would you take this proposition?
Of course, you would! As long as the percentage holds. And there lies the answer to why sports handicappers analyze teams and match-ups so closely when sports wagering. If you can bet on games in which you always win 60% of the time and lose only 40% of the time, you are going to make a lot of money sports wagering! This is the beauty of sports wagering.
Unfortunately, hitting 60% of winners sports wagering is much easier said than done. So again, why sports wagering if 60% is such a difficult winning percentage to attain. Well, if the coin landed on heads 58% of the time wouldn’t you still love it? Also, 56% of the time and even 54%. sports wagering requires you to pick winners more than 52.38% of the time (it’s not 50% because you have to cover the 10% juice) to come out on top.
Forget about the ridiculous claims by handicapping services of winning sports wagering percentages greater than 70 or 80%. Any worthwhile mathematician will tell you such percentages are virtually impossible to achieve when sports wagering. But for sports handicappers who know their stuff and search for point spread value, 56-60% is very achievable throughout a season with sports wagering. And this is what the successful handicapper does with sports wagering.
Thorough knowledge of the sport, gathering information, and the acquisition of point spread value, he seeks to bet repeatedly only on games that give him a 53% or greater chance to win. In other words, he looks for coins that land heads 53% of the time or better and the more 56%, 58%, and 60% coins he can find, the better!
The coin in our example had a positive expected return like sports wagering. In traditional casino games such as craps, roulette, and slots a positive expected value doesn’t exist (all games have a negative expected return). The percentages are always in favor of the house to ensure that the house always wins. In sports wagering, there are many strategies and rules that you can follow to eliminate games that have a negative expected return!
By eliminating games with a negative expected value and only sports wagering on games with a positive expected value, a sports bettor can be incredibly successful! So you’ve bet on sports in the past and haven’t been very successful. Or you just haven’t had the confidence in yourself to place a bet on a game. The question is: “How can I change my sports wagering strategies to ensure a more constant cash flow?”
You can pay a sports handicapper $50 per pick to get the ‘professionals’ opinion. But what makes them a professional? Is it just because they charge you for their advice? You probably know more than they do anyway. And besides, if you pay a high price every time for an ‘experts’ pick, what kind of returns are you going to have to earn to make a profit? After you spend $50 on a pick, you use their advice to make a $200 bet. The team you bet on loses horribly and you’re out $250. The handicapper makes out with your $50 even though he gave you a poor service.
To me, the saddest thing in sports wagering is someone with the knowledge and feel for the games good enough to post a winning record but whose lack of disciplined money management makes him a loser. Money management can be the most important key to increasing your bankroll.
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