MLB Mid-Season Betting Analysis 2019
With the first half of the MLB season coming to an end, I do not think many disagree that the Boston Red Sox bullpen, and maybe the whole team was the most disappointing thing in 2019 in the big leagues. What happened to Chris Sale? His 3-8 record during the first half of the season has been more than a surprise in a negative way.
On the other side of the coin are the Atlanta Braves. No team has been more surprising than the Braves this season. We knew they had the talent and they were forming a very competitive team. However, in the eyes of many, there were still a couple of years left to dominate the Eastern Division of the National League.
Los Angeles Dodgers +300
The Los Angeles Dodgers opened the season by +750 to win the World Series after losing the Championship against the Boston Red Sox the previous year. The creators of bets were not buying the Dodgers to win everything at the beginning. Not because they did not have talent, but because the team had disappointed the big time in recent years. Now, with +300, they have an implicit probability of 30% of becoming a winner.
Los Angeles is clearly the best team in the National League, however, all key is when they reach the World Series and if the third chance can finally beat the champion of the American League.
New York Yankees +350
The Yankees were the favorites to enter the season enlisted in +580. The movement of probabilities was expected, and also the excellent season that they are having until now.
Bets also have the Yankees to win the American League Pennant at +160 with a 38% implied probability of winning. No team scored more runs than the Yankees in the first half of the season, and their +111 differential is also the best in the American League.
The question about the Yankees’ chances is not about collecting numbers against the other teams in the American League, but specifically against the Houston Astros.
Houston Astros +500
The Astros and the Yankees have been trading the first position to win the American League Pennant throughout the season. The New York offense surpasses Houston, but the Astros bullpen is better.
Houston is on the list of +170 in bets with an implied probability of 37% winning the American League pennant. They opened at +225 when the season began. The first 80 games have been just the confirmation that they and the Yankees are far above the rest of the teams.
What separates Houston from New York is that its bullpen is clearly deeper and more talented. When October arrives, you’ll want a bullpen that can close a good hitting lineup.
At +500 maybe Houston is the most valuable bet at this moment because they are full of talent.
Atlanta Braves +900
The evolution of the Braves this year has been remarkable. They opened at +1700 and reached a maximum of +2500 to win the World Series. At +900 there is still a lot of value, although they are a remote possibility mainly because the Dodgers have been untouchable in the National League.